Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall
Abstract
The development of effective Early Warning Systems (EWS) for climate-driven zoonotic diseases has been hindered by a lack of predictors with adequate lead time for effective interventions. Atmosphere-Ocean coupled phenomena present predictability beyond the atmospheric deterministic limits and therefore are potentially useful climate drivers to be integrated in mathematical models. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been used to forecast disease dynamics in equatorial and tropical regions, there is a lack of similar applications for temperate areas, likely because of the perceived unpredictability of atmospheric systems such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This study challenges this notion by establishing a connection between the NAO and its oceanic counterpart, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), revealing common low-frequency components that strongly modulate Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Northern Africa. We demonstrate not only short-term couplings, such as the known NAO’s impact on seasonal rainfall, which subsequently affects CL incidence, but we also uncover a significant lagged effect of approximately three years on rainfall and four years on CL incidence. Our findings reveal a unified, multiscale mechanism that influences CL epidemiology across different time scales, underscoring the predictive skill for short and long term time frames, which should be integrated in CL forecasting models.
Domains
Life Sciences [q-bio]
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)
licence : CC BY NC ND - Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivatives
licence : CC BY NC ND - Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivatives
