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High return level estimates of daily ERA-5 precipitation in Europe estimated using regionalised extreme value distributions

Abstract : Accurate estimation of daily rainfall return levels associated with large return periods is needed for a number of hydrological planning purposes, including protective infrastructure, dams, and retention basins. This is especially relevant at small spatial scales. The ERA-5 reanalysis product provides seasonal daily precipitation over Europe on a 0.25 ×0.25 grid (about 27 × 27 km). This translates more than 20,000 land grid points and leads to models with a large number of parameters when estimating return levels. To bypass this abundance of parameters, we build on the regional frequency analysis (RFA), a well-known strategy in statistical hydrology. This approach consists in identifying homogeneous regions, by gathering locations with similar distributions of extremes up to a normalizing factor and developing sparse regional models. In particular, we propose a step-by-step blueprint that leverages a recently developed and fast clustering algorithm to infer return level estimates over large spatial domains. This enables us to produce maps of return level estimates of ERA-5 reanalysis daily precipitation over continental Europe for various return periods and seasons. We discuss limitations and practical challenges and also provide a git hub repository. We show that a relatively parsimonious model with only a spatially varying scale parameter can compete well against statistical models of higher complexity.
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Preprints, Working Papers, ...
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03461216
Contributor : Philomène Le Gall Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 11:53:00 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, January 4, 2022 - 6:05:45 AM

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RFA_ERA.V19.11.21(submitted).p...
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  • HAL Id : hal-03461216, version 1

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Pauline Rivoire, Philomène Le Gall, Anne-Catherine Favre, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius. High return level estimates of daily ERA-5 precipitation in Europe estimated using regionalised extreme value distributions. 2021. ⟨hal-03461216⟩

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